The Biden administration is pushing for a significant change in auto emissions standards, aiming for electric vehicles (EVs) to constitute two-thirds of all new cars sold in the United States by 2032. While ambitious, experts suggest that this goal, set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is attainable with substantial investment and advancements in technology and infrastructure.
Matthias Heck, an industry analyst at Moody’s, indicates that without these new requirements, EVs would likely reach the proposed market share after 2035. The goals are challenging but manageable, assuming high levels of investment. The proposal is still in its early stages and may undergo changes before finalization.
Over the next decade, significant advancements in EV technology and infrastructure are expected. Improvements in battery technology will increase driving ranges and reduce costs, making EVs more attractive to consumers. Government incentives, such as those in the Inflation Reduction Act, will also play a crucial role in driving adoption.
Chris Harto, a policy analyst at Consumer Reports, notes that EVs in 2032 will be vastly different from today’s models, with better performance and lower operating costs. Harto predicts that by then, EVs will reach cost parity with gas-powered vehicles, making them a more viable option for consumers.
Next-generation EV batteries, anticipated in the coming years, are expected to offer 30% longer ranges and recharge 30% faster, according to Moody’s Heck. Improved charging networks will further ease the transition to EVs, making them a compelling choice for consumers looking for value and efficiency.
By 2032, a wider variety of EV models will be available, covering more segments of the vehicle market. Currently, EV equivalents exist for about 40% of gas vehicle models. Elizabeth Krear of JD Power projects that by 2026, EV equivalents will be available for 75% of vehicle models, and market share will triple to 27%.
California’s stringent EV policies, which mandate only the sale of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2035, will significantly impact the national market. Corey Cantor from Bloomberg NEF predicts that California’s early adoption will drive national EV market share upwards, potentially achieving the two-thirds target by 2032.
Automakers like Toyota, Honda, and General Motors are ramping up their EV offerings. Toyota plans to expand its EV lineup beyond the BZ4X SUV, and Honda is preparing to launch its first EV next year. General Motors, committed to selling only electric passenger vehicles by 2035, will soon introduce various EV models across different market segments.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, representing major automakers, has expressed caution regarding the ambitious goals. The group emphasizes the need for cooperation among government agencies to support the transition.
Reaching the two-thirds EV market share by 2032 is challenging but feasible with continued technological advancements, increased model availability, and supportive government policies. While the proposal is ambitious, the combined efforts of automakers, policymakers, and consumers could drive a significant shift toward a more sustainable automotive future.