President Joe Biden’s decision to greenlight Ukraine’s use of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russia marks a significant escalation in the ongoing war. The move fits a familiar pattern: months of White House hesitation over Ukrainian weapon requests, followed by eventual approval, often when it risks being too late to make a decisive impact.
ATACMS, with a maximum range of 300 kilometers (190 miles), offer Ukraine the ability to strike deep into Russian territory. However, the supply of these missiles is limited, and analysts doubt they can singularly shift the trajectory of the war. Despite this, their deployment enables Ukraine to target hundreds of key Russian sites, including airfields, as some Russian aircraft have reportedly been relocated deeper into the country to avoid potential strikes.
Why ATACMS Won’t Be a Game-Changer
While the approval of ATACMS is symbolically significant, the missiles alone are unlikely to alter the course of the war. Ukraine has already demonstrated success in penetrating Russian territory with cost-effective, domestically manufactured drones, which have disrupted Moscow’s airports and energy infrastructure.
The Biden administration also weighed the provocative nature of its decision. Striking within Russia carries risks of potential retaliation from the Kremlin, including unconventional threats like sabotage or cyberattacks. However, Russia’s current military weakness and reluctance for full-scale conflict with NATO likely tempered concerns about immediate escalation.
A Response to Russian and North Korean Actions
The timing of Biden’s decision coincides with reports of North Korean troops being deployed in Russia’s Kursk region, which Western officials interpret as an expansion of the war’s global dimensions. This growing involvement of U.S. adversaries in the conflict may have prompted the White House to increase its commitment to Ukraine.
By framing the ATACMS approval as a proportional response to Moscow’s escalation, Biden signals the U.S.’s readiness to counter rising threats while maintaining control over its involvement. The decision underscores the administration’s broader effort to support Ukraine without triggering a direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
Implications for Trump’s Presidency
President-elect Donald Trump, who has signaled his intention to negotiate peace, will inherit a war with higher stakes and new complexities. Biden’s approval of long-range strikes deepens U.S. involvement, making it harder for a future administration to walk back its support without appearing to abandon Ukraine.
As Trump prepares to take office, he will face a conflict that is increasingly intertwined with global adversaries like North Korea and a more deeply engaged United States. Whether he can de-escalate or broker peace remains to be seen, but Biden’s decision has undoubtedly set the stage for a higher-stakes geopolitical showdown.