In October 2023, the Biden administration was on the brink of transferring 11 detainees from the Guantanamo Bay detention facility to a country in the Middle East. However, the transfer was abruptly halted following the Hamas attack on Israel, raising concerns about the political optics of such a move, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the planning.
More than seven months later, no new date for the transfer has been set, leaving the detainees in limbo. This delay has frustrated administration officials who believe that election-year politics are interfering with President Joe Biden’s goal of reducing the Guantanamo population and ultimately closing the facility. These officials are concerned that the likelihood of the transfer taking place before the November presidential election diminishes as the election approaches.
Details of the Planned Transfer
The 11 detainees, all either citizens of Yemen or with ties to the country, were scheduled to be resettled in Oman. Several U.S. officials noted that the transfer deal with Oman is still under discussion, including specifics on timing and conditions. Politics have played a significant role in the delay, although some logistics remain unresolved.
A senior administration official indicated that Oman has, at times since October, also been hesitant about the transfer. Despite the frustrations, efforts to finalize the administrative steps required for the transfer are ongoing.
Political Controversy and Historical Context
The transfer of Guantanamo detainees has been a contentious issue across multiple presidential administrations. In January, leading Democrats and Republicans on the House and Senate intelligence committees opposed using intelligence community funds to facilitate detainee transfers.
Biden, following in the footsteps of President Barack Obama, has aimed to close Guantanamo. However, detainee transfers nearly ceased during Donald Trump’s presidency. Biden administration officials are concerned that if the 11 detainees are not resettled this year and Trump is re-elected, the detainees could remain at Guantanamo for at least another four years.
Imminent Transfer Halted
The transfer was imminent in October, with Congress already notified as required by law at least 30 days in advance. The transfer would have reduced Guantanamo’s population to below 20 for the first time since it began holding suspected terrorists in January 2002.
Negotiations had been ongoing for months to ensure that the detainees wouldn’t pose a security threat and to determine any compensation they would receive. Multiple U.S. officials said the decision to stop the transfer was not due to concerns from Oman but rather due to political concerns raised by congressional members, particularly Democrats close to President Biden.
The Situation in Yemen
Most of the 11 detainees were cleared for release or transfer years ago. However, Yemen’s prolonged civil war made transferring them there infeasible. Although fighting had subsided in 2023, the country remains unstable with a severe humanitarian crisis and ongoing terrorist attacks from an Al Qaeda affiliate. The Israel-Hamas war in October led to increased instability, with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels attacking ships in the Red Sea, prompting the U.S. and coalition partners to conduct defensive airstrikes.
Conclusion
The fate of the 11 detainees at Guantanamo Bay remains uncertain, as political and logistical challenges continue to delay their transfer. The Biden administration’s efforts to reduce the Guantanamo population face significant hurdles, exacerbated by the complex geopolitical landscape and domestic political considerations.